Next Seminar

Prof. Yang Feng Date June/1/2025
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
9:00~12:00
Speaker Yang Feng New York University
Title Transfer Learning, Multi-task Learning, and Federated Learning: Statistical Foundations for Modern Data Integration
Abstract The ability to transfer knowledge across tasks and domains lies at the heart of both human cognition and modern machine learning. Frameworks such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and federated learning have emerged as powerful paradigms for data integration, enabling learning across heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and privacy-sensitive data sources. However, significant statistical challenges remain, including: (1) unknown task similarity; (2) data contamination; (3) high dimensionality; and (4) strict privacy constraints. This talk series introduces the statistical foundations of these frameworks and highlights recent advances from my research group that address these challenges. Part I: Transfer Learning. We present a framework for high-dimensional generalized linear models that combines pre-trained Lasso estimators with a calibrated fine-tuning step. The method offers theoretical guarantees for estimation and inference, and reveals granular insights through an application to U.S. county-level predictions in the 2020 presidential election. Part II: Federated Unsupervised Learning. To tackle heterogeneity in mixture models across distributed data sources, we develop a federated gradient EM algorithm that is communication-efficient and privacy-preserving. We derive finite-sample bounds for parameter estimation and demonstrate the practical advantages in handwritten digit clustering. Part III: Representation-based Multi-task Learning. Going beyond distance-based similarity assumptions, we propose a new framework that adapts to task similarity and is robust to outlier tasks. We derive minimax-optimal guarantees under heterogeneous representations and contaminated task-level data, with applications to image and text representation learning.
Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:849 6581 7885 Passcode: 619383
Chair Qingfeng Liu Hosei University
Hosts TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (C) No. 25K05040 (Qingfeng Liu)

LOGISTICS For each TEDS seminar, the time of presentation is about 1 hour. After the presentation, we have 10 minutes for questions and comments. To learn more from our guest speakers and deepen exchanges between all of us, after the presentation, a session of several minutes for free talk is set. You can ask further questions regardless of whether they are related to the presentation, or share some idea with the guest or any of us, or introduce yourself to the others, or talk about anything as you please. You can enter or leave freely during the seminar. We hope everybody could enjoy our seminar. (Participants are expected to behave in a manner respectful of the presenter and other participants. Organizers keep rights to mute and/or expel those who engage in inappropriate conduct.)

shikotsuko

Managing Chair (2025)

Qingfeng Liu, Hosei University, JPN.
Former Managing Chair

Co-chairs

Liyu Dou, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), CHN.
Yang Feng, New York University, USA.
Masamune Iwasawa, Otaru University of Commerce, JPN.
Yingying Li, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, CHN.
Nianqing (Paul) Liu, Xiamen University , CHN.
Qu Feng, Nanyang Technological University, SGP.
Wenjie Wang, Nanyang Technological University, SGP.
abc Global

Advisor

Yoshihiko Nishiyama, Kyoto University, JPN.

co-chairs

Ryo Okui, The University of Tokyo, JPN.
Naoya Sueishi, Kobe University, JPN.
Wei Sun, Jilin University, CHN.
Takahiro Terasaka, Otaru University of Commerce, JPN.
Yoshimasa Uematsu, Hitotsubashi University, JPN.
Takahide Yanagi, Kyoto University, JPN.
Arihiro Yoshimura, Kyoto Sangyo University, JPN.
Xinyu Zhang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, CHN.

Upcoming Seminars

Prof. Yang Feng Date June/1/2025
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
9:00~12:00
Speaker Yang Feng New York University
Title Transfer Learning, Multi-task Learning, and Federated Learning: Statistical Foundations for Modern Data Integration
Abstract The ability to transfer knowledge across tasks and domains lies at the heart of both human cognition and modern machine learning. Frameworks such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and federated learning have emerged as powerful paradigms for data integration, enabling learning across heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and privacy-sensitive data sources. However, significant statistical challenges remain, including: (1) unknown task similarity; (2) data contamination; (3) high dimensionality; and (4) strict privacy constraints. This talk series introduces the statistical foundations of these frameworks and highlights recent advances from my research group that address these challenges. Part I: Transfer Learning. We present a framework for high-dimensional generalized linear models that combines pre-trained Lasso estimators with a calibrated fine-tuning step. The method offers theoretical guarantees for estimation and inference, and reveals granular insights through an application to U.S. county-level predictions in the 2020 presidential election. Part II: Federated Unsupervised Learning. To tackle heterogeneity in mixture models across distributed data sources, we develop a federated gradient EM algorithm that is communication-efficient and privacy-preserving. We derive finite-sample bounds for parameter estimation and demonstrate the practical advantages in handwritten digit clustering. Part III: Representation-based Multi-task Learning. Going beyond distance-based similarity assumptions, we propose a new framework that adapts to task similarity and is robust to outlier tasks. We derive minimax-optimal guarantees under heterogeneous representations and contaminated task-level data, with applications to image and text representation learning.
Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:849 6581 7885 Passcode: 619383
Chair Qingfeng Liu Hosei University
Hosts TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (C) No. 25K05040 (Qingfeng Liu)

Past Seminars

Prof. Qihui Chen Date April/14/2023
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
11:30~12:45
Speaker Qihui Chen The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen)
Title Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference
Abstract This paper introduces a simple and tractable sieve estimation of semiparametric conditional factor models with latent factors. We establish large-N-asymptotic properties of the estimators and test statistics without requiring large T. We also develop a simple bootstrap procedure for conducting inference about the conditional pricing errors as well as the shapes of the factor loading functions. These results enable us to estimate the conditional factor structure of a large set of individual assets by utilizing arbitrary nonlinear functions of a number of characteristics without the need to pre-specify the factors, while allowing us to disentangle the characteristics’ role in capturing factor betas from alphas (i.e., undiversifiable risk from mispricing). We apply these methods to the cross-section of individual U.S. stock returns and find strong evidence of large nonzero pricing errors that combine to produce arbitrage portfolios with Sharpe ratios above 3.
Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:852 1615 0902 Passcode: 207686
Chair Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University
Hosts TEDS and Nanyang Technological University

Prof. Gregory Cox Date March/31/2023
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
11:00~12:15
Speaker Gregory Cox National University of Singapore
Title A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for the Timing of a Structural Break
Abstract Time series often have a structural break at some point in the sample. This paper proposes a new hypothesis test, the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test, for the timing of a structural break in the coefficients of a linear regression. Since inference on the timing of a break depends critically on the magnitude of the break, the CLR test uses a critical value from the conditional distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic given a sufficient statistic for the magnitude of the break. To estimate the conditional critical value, we develop a specially designed null-imposed bootstrap. We prove that the CLR test is uniformly valid over the magnitude of the break. Simulations indicate the confidence set for the break date formed by inverting the CLR test has good coverage probability for any break magnitude and shorter average length than alternative confidence sets.
Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID: 840 5821 5629 Passcode: 067622
Chair Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University
Hosts TEDS and Nanyang Technological University

Prof. Yu Zhou Date March/22/2023
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
10:00~11:30
Speaker Yu Zhou East China Normal University
Title Deep Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction
Abstract Undergoing accelerated developments for more than 30 years, sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) has now become a powerful tool in statistics. We in this paper establish a general framework to take the advantage of deep neural networks (DNNs) to perform nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction. Compared to existing methods based on RKHS, our proposal is more efficient in computation. We also systematically study the convergence rate of the sample estimator, which is nearly minimax optimal. Comprehensive simulation studies and real data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose method.
Video Click here to watch the video
Chair Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University
Hosts TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (B) No. 22H00833 and Center for Quantitative Economics of Jilin University.

Prof.Ming Li Date March/10/2023
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
11:00~12:30
Speaker Ming Li National University of Singapore
Title Identification and Estimation in a Time-Varying Endogenous Random Coefficient Model
Abstract This paper proposes a random coefficient panel data model in which the regressors are correlated with the time-varying random coefficients in each period. We model the random coefficients as unknown functions of a fixed effect of arbitrary dimension, a time-varying random shock that affects the values of regressors, and an idiosyncratic shock. We introduce a new panel data-based identification strategy to control for the correlation between the time-varying random coefficients and regressors. We propose a three-step series estimator that is easy to compute and prove that it is asymptotically normal. Simulation results show that the proposed method accurately estimates the first-order moments of the random coefficients. As an empirical illustration, we estimate unconditional and conditional means of output elasticities with respect to capital and labor for the five largest sectors of China's manufacturing industry and find significant across-firm variation in the output elasticities within each sector.
Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:845 2990 2373 Passcode: 070249
Chair Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University
Hosts TEDS and Nanyang Technological University

Prof. Robin L. Lumsdaine Date January/26/2023
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
10:00~11:30
Speaker Robin L. Lumsdaine American University
Title Central Bank Mandates and Monetary Policy Stances: through the Lens of Federal Reserve Speeches
Abstract When does the Federal Reserve deviate from its dual mandate of pursuing the economic goals of maximum employment and price stability and what are the consequences? We assemble the most comprehensive collection of Federal Reserve speeches to-date and apply state-of-the-art natural language processing methods to extract a variety of textual features from each paragraph of each speech. We find that the periodic emergence of non-dual mandate related discussions is an important determinant of time-variations in the historical conduct of monetary policy with implications for asset returns. The period from mid-1996 to late-2010 stands out as the time with the narrowest focus on balancing the dual mandate. Prior to the 1980s there was a outsized attention to employment and output growth considerations, while non dual-mandate discussions centered around financial stability considerations emerged after the Great Financial Crisis. Forward-looking financial stability concerns are a particularly important driver of a less accommodative monetary policy stance when Fed officials link these concerns to monetary policy, rather than changes in banking regulation. Conversely, discussions about current financial crises and monetary policy in the context of inflation-employment themes are associated with a more accommodative policy stance.
Video Click here to watch the video
Chair Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University
Hosts TEDS and Nanyang Technological University

Other 2021 seminars (with videos and slides)

Other 2022 seminars (with videos and slides)

Other 2023 seminars (with videos and slides)

Image
Speaker
Speaker Bruce E. Hansen University of Wisconsin-Madison
Date August/26/2022
Time Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h)
10:00 ~ 11:30
Video Click here to watch the video
Chair Naoya Sueishi Kobe University
Hosts TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (B) No. 22H00833 (Liu).
  • A Modern Gauss-Markov Theorem, Econometrica, (2022), 90, 1283-1294.
  • Inference for Iterated GMM Under Misspecification, with Seojeong Lee, Econometrica, (2021), 89, 1419-14447.
  • Least Squares Model Averaging, Econometrica, (2007), 75, 1175-1189.
  • abc Image
    Title Standard Errors for Two-Way Clustering with Serially Correlated Time Effects
    Abstract We propose improved standard errors and an asymptotic distribution theory for two-way clustered panels. Our proposed estimator and theory allow for arbitrary serial dependence in the common time effects, which is excluded by existing two-way methods, including the popular two-way cluster standard errors of Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller (2011) and the cluster bootstrap of Menzel (2021). Our asymptotic distribution theory is the first which allows for this level of inter-dependence among the observations. Under weak regularity conditions, we demonstrate that the least squares estimator is asymptotically normal, our proposed variance estimator is consistent, and t-ratios are asymptotically standard normal, permitting conventional inference. We present simulation evidence that confidence intervals constructed with our proposed standard errors obtain superior coverage performance relative to existing methods. We illustrate the relevance of the proposed method in an empirical application to a standard Fama-French three-factor regression.

    2022 New Year TEDS Speech

    Image by monicore from Pixabay
    Speaker
  • He is a statistician, financial econometrician and data scientist,
  • He is Frederick L. Moore '18 Professor of Finance, Professor of Statistics, and Professor of Operations Research and Financial Engineering at the Princeton University where he chaired the department from 2012 to 2015.
  • He is the winner of The 2000 COPSS Presidents' Award, Morningside Gold Medal for Applied Mathematics (2007), Guggenheim Fellow (2009), Pao-Lu Hsu Prize (2013) and Guy Medal in Silver (2014). He got elected to Academician from Academia Sinica in 2012.
  • abc Image by monicore from Pixabay
    Date&Time JST ☼ 東京 Jan/07/2022 11:00 ~ 12:30
    CST ☼ 北京 Jan/07/2022 10:00 ~ 11:30
    EST ☽ NYC Jan/06/2022 21:00 ~ 22:30
    Speaker Jianqing Fan  Princeton University
    Title Understanding Deep Q-Learning
    Abstract TBA
    Venue Click here to join the Zoom Meeting
    Chair Yoshihiko Nishiyama Kyoto University
    Q&A Moderated by Qu Feng Nanyang Technological University
    Hosts Jointly organized by TEDS, Nanyang Technological University, Kansai Keiryo Keizaigaku Kenkyukai(関西計量経済学研究会)and Otaru University of Commerce.
    Video Click here to see the video


    Transdisciplinary Econometrics & Data Science Seminar - TEDS


    TEDS gratefully acknowledges the supports of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science through KAKENHI Grant (B) No. 22H00833 (Qingfeng Liu), Nanyang Technological University, Joint Research Program of KIER, Kyoto University and Chinese Academy of Sciences.


    E-mail: tedsseminars@gmail.com