TRANSDISCIPLINARY ECONOMETRICS & DATA SCIENCE SEMINAR |
SINCE 2021
TEDS is co-organized by scholars from Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hitotsubashi University, Hosei University, Jilin University, Kobe University, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kyoto University, Nanyang Technological University, New York University, Otaru University of Commerce, Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and The University of Tokyo. We provide a platform for econometricians and statisticians to interact and engage with each other while sharing their newest research findings. We welcome researchers and students in different countries and research fields of Econometrics, Statistics and Data Science to join our seminar. |
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Date | June/1/2025 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
9:00~12:00 | ||
Speaker | Yang Feng New York University | |
Title | Transfer Learning, Multi-task Learning, and Federated Learning: Statistical Foundations for Modern Data Integration | |
Abstract | The ability to transfer knowledge across tasks and domains lies at the heart of both human cognition and modern machine learning. Frameworks such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and federated learning have emerged as powerful paradigms for data integration, enabling learning across heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and privacy-sensitive data sources. However, significant statistical challenges remain, including: (1) unknown task similarity; (2) data contamination; (3) high dimensionality; and (4) strict privacy constraints. This talk series introduces the statistical foundations of these frameworks and highlights recent advances from my research group that address these challenges. Part I: Transfer Learning. We present a framework for high-dimensional generalized linear models that combines pre-trained Lasso estimators with a calibrated fine-tuning step. The method offers theoretical guarantees for estimation and inference, and reveals granular insights through an application to U.S. county-level predictions in the 2020 presidential election. Part II: Federated Unsupervised Learning. To tackle heterogeneity in mixture models across distributed data sources, we develop a federated gradient EM algorithm that is communication-efficient and privacy-preserving. We derive finite-sample bounds for parameter estimation and demonstrate the practical advantages in handwritten digit clustering. Part III: Representation-based Multi-task Learning. Going beyond distance-based similarity assumptions, we propose a new framework that adapts to task similarity and is robust to outlier tasks. We derive minimax-optimal guarantees under heterogeneous representations and contaminated task-level data, with applications to image and text representation learning. | |
Venue | Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:849 6581 7885 Passcode: 619383 | |
Chair | Qingfeng Liu Hosei University | |
Hosts | TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (C) No. 25K05040 (Qingfeng Liu) |
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Date | June/1/2025 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
9:00~12:00 | ||
Speaker | Yang Feng New York University | |
Title | Transfer Learning, Multi-task Learning, and Federated Learning: Statistical Foundations for Modern Data Integration | |
Abstract | The ability to transfer knowledge across tasks and domains lies at the heart of both human cognition and modern machine learning. Frameworks such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and federated learning have emerged as powerful paradigms for data integration, enabling learning across heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and privacy-sensitive data sources. However, significant statistical challenges remain, including: (1) unknown task similarity; (2) data contamination; (3) high dimensionality; and (4) strict privacy constraints. This talk series introduces the statistical foundations of these frameworks and highlights recent advances from my research group that address these challenges. Part I: Transfer Learning. We present a framework for high-dimensional generalized linear models that combines pre-trained Lasso estimators with a calibrated fine-tuning step. The method offers theoretical guarantees for estimation and inference, and reveals granular insights through an application to U.S. county-level predictions in the 2020 presidential election. Part II: Federated Unsupervised Learning. To tackle heterogeneity in mixture models across distributed data sources, we develop a federated gradient EM algorithm that is communication-efficient and privacy-preserving. We derive finite-sample bounds for parameter estimation and demonstrate the practical advantages in handwritten digit clustering. Part III: Representation-based Multi-task Learning. Going beyond distance-based similarity assumptions, we propose a new framework that adapts to task similarity and is robust to outlier tasks. We derive minimax-optimal guarantees under heterogeneous representations and contaminated task-level data, with applications to image and text representation learning. | |
Venue | Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:849 6581 7885 Passcode: 619383 | |
Chair | Qingfeng Liu Hosei University | |
Hosts | TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (C) No. 25K05040 (Qingfeng Liu) |
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Date | April/14/2023 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
11:30~12:45 | ||
Speaker | Qihui Chen The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) | |
Title | Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference | |
Abstract | This paper introduces a simple and tractable sieve estimation of semiparametric conditional factor models with latent factors. We establish large-N-asymptotic properties of the estimators and test statistics without requiring large T. We also develop a simple bootstrap procedure for conducting inference about the conditional pricing errors as well as the shapes of the factor loading functions. These results enable us to estimate the conditional factor structure of a large set of individual assets by utilizing arbitrary nonlinear functions of a number of characteristics without the need to pre-specify the factors, while allowing us to disentangle the characteristics’ role in capturing factor betas from alphas (i.e., undiversifiable risk from mispricing). We apply these methods to the cross-section of individual U.S. stock returns and find strong evidence of large nonzero pricing errors that combine to produce arbitrage portfolios with Sharpe ratios above 3. | |
Venue | Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:852 1615 0902 Passcode: 207686 | |
Chair | Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University | |
Hosts | TEDS and Nanyang Technological University |
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Date | March/31/2023 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
11:00~12:15 | ||
Speaker | Gregory Cox National University of Singapore | |
Title | A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for the Timing of a Structural Break | |
Abstract | Time series often have a structural break at some point in the sample. This paper proposes a new hypothesis test, the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test, for the timing of a structural break in the coefficients of a linear regression. Since inference on the timing of a break depends critically on the magnitude of the break, the CLR test uses a critical value from the conditional distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic given a sufficient statistic for the magnitude of the break. To estimate the conditional critical value, we develop a specially designed null-imposed bootstrap. We prove that the CLR test is uniformly valid over the magnitude of the break. Simulations indicate the confidence set for the break date formed by inverting the CLR test has good coverage probability for any break magnitude and shorter average length than alternative confidence sets. | |
Venue | Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID: 840 5821 5629 Passcode: 067622 | |
Chair | Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University | |
Hosts | TEDS and Nanyang Technological University |
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Date | March/22/2023 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
10:00~11:30 | ||
Speaker | Yu Zhou East China Normal University | |
Title | Deep Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction | |
Abstract | Undergoing accelerated developments for more than 30 years, sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) has now become a powerful tool in statistics. We in this paper establish a general framework to take the advantage of deep neural networks (DNNs) to perform nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction. Compared to existing methods based on RKHS, our proposal is more efficient in computation. We also systematically study the convergence rate of the sample estimator, which is nearly minimax optimal. Comprehensive simulation studies and real data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose method. | |
Video | Click here to watch the video | |
Chair | Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University | |
Hosts | TEDS, JSPS KAKENHI (B) No. 22H00833 and Center for Quantitative Economics of Jilin University. |
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Date | March/10/2023 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
11:00~12:30 | ||
Speaker | Ming Li National University of Singapore | |
Title | Identification and Estimation in a Time-Varying Endogenous Random Coefficient Model | |
Abstract | This paper proposes a random coefficient panel data model in which the regressors are correlated with the time-varying random coefficients in each period. We model the random coefficients as unknown functions of a fixed effect of arbitrary dimension, a time-varying random shock that affects the values of regressors, and an idiosyncratic shock. We introduce a new panel data-based identification strategy to control for the correlation between the time-varying random coefficients and regressors. We propose a three-step series estimator that is easy to compute and prove that it is asymptotically normal. Simulation results show that the proposed method accurately estimates the first-order moments of the random coefficients. As an empirical illustration, we estimate unconditional and conditional means of output elasticities with respect to capital and labor for the five largest sectors of China's manufacturing industry and find significant across-firm variation in the output elasticities within each sector. | |
Venue | Click here to join the Zoom Meeting Meeting ID:845 2990 2373 Passcode: 070249 | |
Chair | Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University | |
Hosts | TEDS and Nanyang Technological University |
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Date | January/26/2023 |
Time | Japan Standard Time (UTC+9h) | |
10:00~11:30 | ||
Speaker | Robin L. Lumsdaine American University | |
Title | Central Bank Mandates and Monetary Policy Stances: through the Lens of Federal Reserve Speeches | |
Abstract | When does the Federal Reserve deviate from its dual mandate of pursuing the economic goals of maximum employment and price stability and what are the consequences? We assemble the most comprehensive collection of Federal Reserve speeches to-date and apply state-of-the-art natural language processing methods to extract a variety of textual features from each paragraph of each speech. We find that the periodic emergence of non-dual mandate related discussions is an important determinant of time-variations in the historical conduct of monetary policy with implications for asset returns. The period from mid-1996 to late-2010 stands out as the time with the narrowest focus on balancing the dual mandate. Prior to the 1980s there was a outsized attention to employment and output growth considerations, while non dual-mandate discussions centered around financial stability considerations emerged after the Great Financial Crisis. Forward-looking financial stability concerns are a particularly important driver of a less accommodative monetary policy stance when Fed officials link these concerns to monetary policy, rather than changes in banking regulation. Conversely, discussions about current financial crises and monetary policy in the context of inflation-employment themes are associated with a more accommodative policy stance. | |
Video | Click here to watch the video | |
Chair | Wenjie Wang Nanyang Technological University | |
Hosts | TEDS and Nanyang Technological University |
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Transdisciplinary Econometrics & Data Science Seminar - TEDS |
TEDS gratefully acknowledges the supports of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science through KAKENHI Grant (B) No. 22H00833 (Qingfeng Liu), Nanyang Technological University, Joint Research Program of KIER, Kyoto University and Chinese Academy of Sciences. |
E-mail: tedsseminars@gmail.com |